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Risk score 0–100
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Traffic light for AI froth — not advice. See How scored.
7 signs the AI bubble is about to pop
Hover or tap ? anywhere for how a reading is judged.
Market pillars
Open by default — tap a pillar header to collapse details.
Who gets hit?
How scored
Headline narrative = the 7 signs. Each sign is green (not firing), amber (early), or red (firing). Overall risk = 55% signs score + 45% pillar average. Signs score ≈ 18 + 8×amber + 16×red. Pillars 0–100 (higher = more froth). Traffic: green <40, amber 40–64, red ≥65.
Green = none firing · Amber = early / dig in · Red = signs firing / elevated risk. Free AI-bubble risk traffic light for markets — not financial advice.
The 7 signs
- Hyperscalers cut CapEx — live proxy: MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META vs SPY (+ note that true CapEx is quarterly).
- AI usage slows — weak live proxy: BOTZ fade / NVDA·SMH vs XLK stall (not literal usage).
- Frontier lab implodes — qualitative; not auto-detected.
- Compute breakthrough — live proxy: NVDA/SMH collapse vs IGV/XLK.
- OSS model wins — qualitative; no fake leaderboards.
- Credit cracks — live: VIX + HYG−LQD + ORCL equity stress.
- GPUs as collateral lose value — live proxy: NVDA+SMCI+MU crash vs SPY.
Market pillars
- Valuation stretch — Mag7 / NVDA 3M relative to SPY + distance above 200DMA.
- Concentration — QQQ vs RSP (equal-weight); falls back to QQQ−SPY.
- Credit / liquidity — Low VIX and HYG outrunning LQD = complacency froth.
- Breadth / crowding — AI basket vs SPY + RSI(14) extremes.
- Semis cycle — SMH vs SPY / XLK and extension above 200DMA.
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Free daily ping when a KPI turns amber or red — confirm your email to start. Heads-up only, not trading signals.